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Statistical Reports

Ch 2: Estimated current cancer mortality [2022]

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Ontario Cancer Statistics 2022 Ch 2: Estimated Current Cancer Mortality

Mortality measures the number of deaths caused by cancer. This chapter reports projections for 2019 to 2022. The projected statistics do not account for the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Mortality Overview

While the number of deaths (mortality) from all cancers in Ontario has increased over the past 3 decades, the mortality rate has decreased. ln general, cancer mortality is affected by:

  • cancer incidence
  • cancer survival
  • socio-demographic factors
  • the availability and effectiveness of early detection and screening for cancer
  • the availability of and access to effective treatment for cancer

ln 2022, an estimated 31,196 people in Ontario are expected to die from cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer). This estimate represents an age-standardized mortality rate of 174.9 out of every 100,000 people (Figure 2.1). While the number of cancer deaths has increased each year since 1984, the age-standardized mortality rate peaked in 1988 and has decreased every year since 1999.

Notes:

  1. Rates are per 100,000 and standardized to the age distribution of the 2011 Canadian Standard population.
  2. The shaded area indicates projected data for the years 2019 onward.

Analysis by: Surveillance, Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario)
Data source: Ontario Cancer Registry (March 2021), Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario)

Figure 2.1 Projected mortality counts and age-standardized rates for all cancers combined, Ontario, 1984 to 2022
Year of death Deaths Mortality rate
1984 16546 256
1985 17230 259.7
1986 17339 254
1987 18007 255.8
1988 18873 261
1989 19026 256.3
1990 19089 249.9
1991 19616 251.2
1992 20010 249.1
1993 20547 249.4
1994 21302 253.5
1995 21427 249.3
1996 21665 245.7
1997 21666 240.4
1998 21932 237.5
1999 22655 240
2000 23158 239.6
2001 23664 238.9
2002 23984 235.2
2003 24275 231.4
2004 24665 228.1
2005 24930 224.6
2006 24971 218.6
2007 25370 215.8
2008 25794 213.3
2009 26076 209.6
2010 26585 207.8
2011 27127 206.2
2012 27442 202.7
2013 27634 198.2
2014 28075 195.9
2015 28291 192.6
2016 29074 192.3
2017 29335 188.1
2018 29712 185.2
2019 30167 182.6
2020 30514 179.8
2021 30757 177
2022 31196 174.9

Note: Rates are per 100,000 and standardized to the age distribution of the 2011 Canadian Standard population.
Analysis by: Surveillance, Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario)
Data source: Ontario Cancer Registry (March 2021), Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario)

Mortality by Sex

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Among males, cancer is expected to cause 16,392 deaths in 2022, which will result in an age-standardized mortality rate of 204.0 per 100,000 (Figure 2.2). The numbers are expected to be lower for females, with 14,804 expected deaths and an age-standardized mortality rate of 152.7 per 100,000. Males are projected to account for 52% of all cancer deaths in 2022. This percentage has decreased slightly over time, with males accounting for 54% of all cancer deaths in 1984.

Notes:

  1. Rates are per 100,000 and standardized to the age distribution of the 2011 Canadian Standard population
  2. The shaded area indicates projected data for the years 2019 onward.

Analysis by: Surveillance, Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario)
Data source: Ontario Cancer Registry (March 2021), Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario)

Figure 2.2 Projected mortality counts and age-standardized rates by sex for all cancers combined, Ontario, 1984 to 2022
Year of death Deaths - males Mortality rate-males Deaths-females Mortality rate-females
1984 8941 331 7605 207.6
1985 9171 333.1 8059 214
1986 9366 328.9 7973 206.7
1987 9704 330.3 8303 208.8
1988 10312 342.9 8561 208.9
1989 10287 332.8 8739 207.7
1990 10349 323.2 8740 202
1991 10510 323.7 9106 205.4
1992 10799 321.8 9211 203.1
1993 10934 317.1 9613 206
1994 11423 324.6 9879 207.7
1995 11359 316 10068 206.6
1996 11421 309.4 10244 205.2
1997 11636 307.7 10030 196.5
1998 11584 299.6 10348 197.9
1999 11938 298.9 10717 200.9
2000 12118 298.1 11040 201.9
2001 12402 297.1 11262 200.6
2002 12599 292.5 11385 197.8
2003 12700 285.8 11575 196
2004 12816 279.3 11849 194.7
2005 12842 272.2 12088 193.2
2006 13124 269.9 11847 184.5
2007 13169 260.9 12201 184.3
2008 13409 258.8 12385 182.7
2009 13667 255.3 12409 177.9
2010 13839 251.1 12746 178
2011 14188 249.5 12939 176
2012 14360 243.9 13082 173.7
2013 14465 237.7 13169 170.3
2014 14799 236.2 13276 167.4
2015 14694 227.6 13597 167.9
2016 15136 227.1 13938 167.5
2017 15380 222.9 13955 162.5
2018 15706 220.2 14006 159.4
2019 15841 214.6 14326 158.7
2020 16015 210.6 14499 156.6
2021 16121 206.6 14636 154.5
2022 16392 204 14804 152.7

 

Notes:

  1. Rates are per 100,000 and standardized to the age distribution of the 2011 Canadian Standard population

Analysis by: Surveillance, Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario)
Data source: Ontario Cancer Registry (March 2021), Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario)

Mortality by Cancer Type

ln 2022, the leading cause of cancer death is expected to be lung cancer, which is projected to account for 22.1% of all cancer deaths (6,908). Colorectal cancer is expected to cause the second highest number of deaths (3,226 or 10.3%), followed by pancreatic cancer. Despite having a much lower incidence, pancreatic cancer is projected to cause roughly the same number of deaths (2,156 or 6.9%) as female breast cancer (2,114 or 6.8%). Together, these 4 cancers will represent almost half of all cancer deaths.

Lung cancer will also be the leading cause of cancer death in males and in females, although the age-standardized mortality rate is projected to be significantly higher in males (42.2 per 100,000) than females (34.7 per 100,000).

For all cancers listed in Table 2.1, except thyroid cancer, the age-standardized mortality rate is expected to be higher in males than females. The higher male mortality rates is due to generally higher incidence rates among males for every cancer that occurs in both males and females. The higher incidence and mortality in males are due to:

  • a higher prevalence of risk factors, such as obesity, alcohol and tobacco use [1]
  • greater occupational exposure to carcinogens [2,3]
  • less use of medical services [4–6]
  • the influence of different sex hormones [7]

The biggest differences in cancer mortality between males and females in 2022 are expected to be for:

  • Hodgkin lymphoma, as well as larynx, esophageal, oral cavity and pharynx and bladder cancers, which will have a male age-standardized mortality rate that is at least 3 times higher than the female rate
  • melanoma, as well as kidney, liver and stomach cancers, which will have a male age-standardized mortality rate that is about twice as high as the female rate

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Table 2.1 Projected mortality counts and age-standardized rates by cancer type and sex, Ontario, 2022
Cancer type Males and females combined -
deaths
Males and females combined -
ASMR
Males -
deaths
Males -
ASMR
Females -
deaths
Females -
ASMR
All cancers 31,196 174.9 16,392 204.0 14,804 152.7
Bladder 960 5.2 683 8.6 277 2.7
Brain 901 5.3 512 6.5 389 4.3
Breast (female) n/a n/a n/a n/a 2,114 23.0
Cervix n/a n/a n/a n/a 155 1.9
Colorectal 3,226 18.2 1,773 22.3 1,453 14.7
Esophagus 929 5.2 725 8.9 204 2.1
Hodgkin lymphoma 43 0.2 29 0.4 14 0.1
Kidney 652 3.7 435 5.5 217 2.2
Larynx 131 0.7 111 1.4 20 0.2
Leukemia 1,140 6.4 637 8.0 503 5.1
Liver 1,462 8.1 952 11.6 510 5.2
Lung 6,908 38.0 3,477 42.2 3,431 34.7
Melanoma 568 3.2 367 4.6 201 2.1
Myeloma 618 3.4 350 4.3 268 2.7
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma 1,204 6.7 693 8.7 511 5.1
Oral cavity and pharynx 613 3.5 452 5.6 161 1.7
Ovary n/a n/a n/a n/a 735 7.8
Pancreas 2,156 12.0 1,129 13.9 1,027 10.3
Prostate n/a n/a 1,697 21.6 n/a n/a
Stomach 809 4.6 505 6.3 304 3.2
Testis n/a n/a 15 0.2 n/a n/a
Thyroid 105 0.6 50 0.6 55 0.6
Uterus n/a n/a n/a n/a 580 6.0

Abbreviations: ASMR means age-standardized mortality rate; n/a means not applicable.

Note: Rates are per 100,000 and standardized to the age distribution of the 2011 Canadian Standard population.

Analysis by: Surveillance, Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario)
Data source: Ontario Cancer Registry (March 2021), Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario)

Mortality by Age

ln 2022, the highest cancer mortality rate is expected to be in the 80 and older age group, followed by the 60 to 79 age group. The latter group, however, will account for an estimated 52% of all deaths, compared to 35% for the older age group (Table 2.2).

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Deaths from cancer before age 40 will continue to be uncommon in 2022, with only 442 deaths expected. These deaths represent 1.4% of all cancer deaths and a rate of 5.9 deaths per 100,000 people.

Although projected mortality rates increase substantially at ages 60 to 79 for most cancer types, the exceptions are for breast and lung cancers. The rates for these cancers instead begin to increase rapidly in the 40 to 59 age group.

Table 2.2 Projected mortality counts and age-specific rates by cancer type and age group, Ontario, 2022
Cancer type Ages 0 to 39
Deaths
Ages 0 to 39
Age-specific rate
Ages 40 to 59
Deaths
Ages 40 to 59
Age-specific rate
Ages 60 to 79
Deaths
Ages 60 to 79
Age-specific rate
Age 80 and older
Deaths
Age 80 and older
Age-specific rate
All cancers 442 5.9 3,610 93.3 16,173 523.6 10,971 1,587.5
Bladder ** ** 46 1.2 414 13.4 499 72.2
Brain 68 0.9 201 5.2 487 15.8 145 21.0
Breast (female) 69 1.9 462 23.4 920 57.0 663 161.6
Cervix 13 0.4 56 2.8 62 3.8 24 5.8
Colorectal 36 0.5 391 10.1 1,500 48.6 1,299 188.0
Esophagus ** ** 129 3.3 544 17.6 252 36.5
Hodgkin lymphoma 6 0.1 ** ** 22 0.7 10 1.4
Kidney ** ** 78 2.0 337 10.9 233 33.7
Larynx ** ** 15 0.4 76 2.5 40 5.8
Leukemia 40 0.5 88 2.3 529 17.1 483 69.9
Liver 18 0.2 159 4.1 874 28.3 411 59.5
Lung 18 0.2 587 15.2 4,220 136.6 2,083 301.4
Melanoma 22 0.3 83 2.1 275 8.9 188 27.2
Myeloma ** ** 52 1.3 328 10.6 238 34.4
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma 22 0.3 127 3.3 596 19.3 459 66.4
Oral cavity and pharynx 8 0.1 117 3.0 345 11.2 143 20.7
Ovary 17 0.5 124 6.3 401 24.8 193 47.0
Pancreas 10 0.1 239 6.2 1,210 39.2 697 100.9
Prostate ** ** 54 2.8 717 48.6 926 329.8
Stomach 9 0.1 129 3.3 410 13.3 261 37.8
Testis 7 0.2 ** ** ** ** ** **
Thyroid ** ** 13 0.3 57 1.8 35 5.1
Uterus ** ** 72 3.7 346 21.4 160 39.0

Symbol: ** Suppressed due to small case count (less than 6).
Note: Rates are per 100,000.

Analysis by: Surveillance, Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario)
Data source: Ontario Cancer Registry (March 2021), Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario)

For more information on cancer mortality in Ontario, including data on more cancer types and trends over time, see Chapter 5: Cancer Mortality.

 

References

  1. Cancer Care Ontario. Prevention System Quality Index: health equity. Toronto: Queen’s Printer for Ontario; 2018.
  2. Marinaccio A, Corfiati M, Binazzi A, Di Marzio D, Scarselli A, Ferrante P, et al.; ReNaM Working Group. The epidemiology of malignant mesothelioma in women: gender differences and modalities of asbestos exposure. Occup Environ Med. 2018; 75(4):254-62.
  3. Lemen RA. Mesothelioma from asbestos exposures: epidemiologic patterns and impact in the United States. J Toxicol Environ Health B Crit Rev. 2016;19(5-6):250-65.
  4. Bertakis KD. The influence of gender on the doctor-patient interaction. Patient Educ Couns. 2009 Sep;76(3):356-60.
  5. Bertakis KD, Azari R, Helms LJ, Callahan EJ, Robbins JA. Gender differences in the utilization of health care services. J Fam Pract. 2000; 49(2):147-52.
  6. Verbrugge LM. Sex differentials in health. Public Health Rep. 1982 Sep-Oct;97(5):417-37.
  7. Bouman A, Heineman MJ, Faas MM. Sex hormones and the immune response in humans. Hum Reprod Update. 2005; 11(4):411-23.